Transcript: What the Dutch far-right win means for the EU

This is an audio transcript of the FT News Briefing podcast episode: ‘What the Dutch far-right win means for the EU’

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Persis Love
Good morning from the Financial Times. Today is Friday, November 24th, and this is your FT News Briefing.

A win for the far right in the Netherlands piles pressure on the EU. UK migration levels reach a record high. Plus, Carlsberg’s Russian staff are arrested. 

Madeleine Speed
Companies I’ve spoke to are terrified to put a foot wrong. They’re trying to keep a low profile, so it’s a pretty risky position. 

Persis Love
I’m Persis Love, in for Marc Filippino, and here’s the news you need to start your day.

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It’s a victory for Europe’s far right this week as Dutch anti-immigration leader, Geert Wilders, won the most votes in his country’s general election. Wilders’ Freedom party is just one in a wave of nationalist parties to have risen to prominence in the EU in recent years. But Wilders will have to form a coalition with other parties before he can assume power. And that might not be so easy. Here to tell me more is the FT’s European comment editor Tony Barber. Hi, Tony. 

Tony Barber
Hello there. 

Persis Love
So tell us about Geert Wilders. What would his leadership look like for the Netherlands? 

Tony Barber
Well, the first thing to keep in mind, of course, is that it’s not clear that he ever will become prime minister or even a minister in the next Dutch government. But should that happen, an awful lot of questions remain without answers. He has never served in government in his entire career. He’s 60 years old. He hasn’t taken part in that sort of give-and-take of coalition negotiations and hammering out of policies with people that you don’t necessarily share the same views with, which is the hallmark of Dutch politics. All Dutch governments are coalitions. He’s never had anything to do with them. So should he enter government, it will be a test of whether he’s really prepared to make those kind of compromises. He’s good at making rabble-rousing speeches and whipping up a public mood outside parliament. But doing the hard grind of government business is an altogether another matter. One thing that he has said since the election result is that he understands the need to honour the constitutional principles of the Dutch state, of Dutch democracy. That was a kind of signal that he was not gonna be intransigent as he opens talks with other parties about how the Netherlands is gonna move forward. 

Persis Love
So Wilders has won the most votes but, as you said, he still has to form a coalition to make it into government. How likely is that to happen? 

Tony Barber
Well, before the election, most of the traditional, more moderate parties were sending the signal that they didn’t want to have anything to do with him, let alone with him as prime minister. Since the results, there’ve been just a couple of signs that one or two parties might say, well, you know, if this is the way things have turned out, then we have to be realists and the government has to be formed one way or the other. It isn’t, I think, completely inconceivable that there could be some coalition agreement hammered out between him and a few other parties. It all depends what sort of compromises he’s prepared to make. He would have to make some. I mean, any coalition is gonna need something like four parties in it. So he couldn’t have his own way on everything. It won’t be easy. I wouldn’t expect a government to be formed for some months. 

Persis Love
And tell me a bit about his politics. What sort of things does he stand for? 

Tony Barber
Well, the thing that’s made his name since he formed his party in 2006 is a very, very hostile approach to the place of Islam and Muslims in Dutch life. And the Netherlands has quite a substantial Muslim minority, not just of citizens descending from former Dutch colonies around the world, but also from places with no particular connection to Dutch history, such as Turkey. And he’s been one of the most intransigent, far-right European politicians on this subject that you could name. He’s also taken a rather aggressive, critical stance towards the European Union, although he’s played that down a bit in recent years. 

Persis Love
So the European elections are actually coming up next year. What does Wilders’ win mean for the EU as a whole? 

Tony Barber
Well, there are a number of challenges. First one one could think of is the question of migration and asylum policies, that’s close to Wilders’ heart. Any sort of progress on migration asylum is gonna be extremely hard.

A second issue is EU support for Ukraine. Wilders, although he did condemn the Russian invasion in 2022, before that his party was fairly sympathetic towards Russia. And since the invasion he’s said, well, I don’t see why we Dutch should be supplying weapons or aid to Ukraine. It’s none of our business.

And then a third thing is that the EU has revived its plans to expand its membership into areas of eastern and south-eastern Europe, including Ukraine. For that to happen, there would need to be very considerable financial and institutional reforms inside the EU as it is. I think with a Dutch government shaped by Wilders in one way or another, it’s gonna be very difficult indeed. 

Persis Love
Tony Barber is the FT’s European comment editor. Thanks for joining me, Tony. 

Tony Barber
Thank you. 

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Persis Love
Brexit was meant to drive down immigration to the UK. But new figures show that net migration hit a record high last year, leading to the fastest population growth since the 1960s. Big increases in immigration came from non-EU nationals moving to the country for work and study post-Brexit. That trend may have already started to fall. Yet the issue remains politically contentious. It’s caused alarm within the ruling Conservative party and they’re under pressure to cut the numbers.

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Danish brewer Carlsberg has been in a battle with Russia over brand licences after its Russian brewery was seized this summer. This story is emblematic of the struggles of western-owned businesses in Russia since the invasion of Ukraine last year. And now several of Carlsberg’s former employees in Russia have been arrested by the authorities. Madeleine Speed has been covering this story and she joins me now. Hi, Madeleine.

Madeleine Speed
Hi there.

Persis Love
So can you just briefly bring us up to date with Carlsberg and its recent troubles with the Russian authorities? 

Madeleine Speed
So Carlsberg owned this Russian brewery called Baltika Breweries. This summer, it was seized by a presidential decree and placed under temporary management. So Carlsberg completely lost control of their Russia business. 

Persis Love
What is the status of the Baltika Brewery now? Who’s in charge? 

Madeleine Speed
So in July, the Kremlin put this executive in charge, who was the director of the brewery back in the 1990s. So he basically returned to take over the brewery again. In the meantime, the CEO that had been in charge when Carlsberg was still in control, he was still around. We found out through our reporting that he’d stepped down. And then we learned last week that he, alongside another senior executive at the company, had been arrested. 

Persis Love
Tell me a bit more about these arrests. 

Madeleine Speed
So the former chief executive, Denis Sherstennikov, he was arrested alongside Anton Rogachevsky, who was the company’s legal vice-president. And basically, they are accused of stealing Baltika’s intellectual property by securing the rights for Carlsberg to export Baltika’s Russian brands to other countries in the region, which is a kind of outlandish claim because these were Carlsberg’s brand. Carlsberg owned Baltika. It was their subsidiary. So Carlsberg has said that these are completely fake and false allegations and that these executives did nothing wrong. 

Persis Love
So how does the arrest play into this battle over Carlsberg’s assets in Russia? 

Madeleine Speed
This is significant that it kind of hinges on the brand licenses because there was already a bit of a legal battle brewing over the rights to Carlsberg international brands. So after Baltika Breweries was seized, Carlsberg retaliated by blocking their ability to sell the Carlsberg international brands — brands like Kronenbourg and Tuborg. But without the ability to sell those brands, Baltika has got a real hole in their revenue stream. 

Persis Love
And how much are the international brands worth to Russia? 

Madeleine Speed
They’re worth a lot. They’re up to roughly 40 per cent of Baltika Breweries’ revenues. And so when you look at them in the context of the arrests and what they’re trying to pin on these two executives, this looks like a further escalation of this sort of battle over the brand licenses. 

Persis Love
And how much of a blow to Carlsberg does the loss of its Russian business represent? 

Madeleine Speed
Carlsberg wrote off the entire value of the Russian business at the same time as they terminated the license agreement, so the ability for Baltika to sell the international brands — so basically cutting off all ties with Russia. Baltika Breweries made up about 9 per cent of their revenues. So it was a big chunk and it was a loss, but they’ve put it behind them. But Carlsberg’s slightly in limbo now because they still have title to the shares of Baltika Breweries. They just don’t have any control because Russia has frozen the shares. 

Persis Love
What kind of message does this send to other western companies who tried to exit Russia without losing their assets? 

Madeleine Speed
There’s a lot of speculation that the seizures of Carlsberg and also of Danone, the French food company that was seized at the same time back in July, that this was meant to be sort of a deterrent to other western companies who are trying to leave. So the theory that Russia’s trying to keep these western companies and their revenues, you know, these companies paying taxes inside Russia. But for those who’ve stayed, this is obviously a big warning shot. Right? Because now they’re all terrified that they’re gonna be seized. Companies I’ve spoken to are terrified to put a foot wrong. They’re trying to keep a low profile. So it’s a pretty risky position. 

Persis Love
Madeleine Speed is the FT’s consumer industries reporter. Thanks, Madeleine. 

Madeleine Speed
Thanks very much. 

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Persis Love
You can read more on all these stories at FT.com for free when you click on the links in our show notes. This has been your daily FT News Briefing. Make sure you check back next week for the latest business news.

The FT News Briefing this week was produced by Kasia Broussalian, Sonja Hutson, Fiona Symon, Marc Filippino, Josh Gabert-Doyon and me, Persis Love. Our engineers were Monica Lopez and Odinn Ingibergsson. We had help this week from Saffeya Ahmed, Joanna Kao, Sam Giovinco, David da Silva, Michael Lello, Peter Barber, Gavin Kallmann and Tom Stokes. Our executive producers this week were Manuela Saragosa and Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of audio. And our theme song is by Metaphor Music. 

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